I know predictions and forecasts have the potential to age poorly–there are just so many unforeseeable factors that can emerge and throw the most well-thought-out forecasts off the rails.

For example, how many of us would have predicted the absolutely sector-transforming series of policy changes that IRCC came out with in 2024?

But I still think it can be fruitful to look ahead, if for nothing else than to fuel discussion.

This challenging moment for language education in Canada will continue for a while longer.

It’s a challenging time for language education in Canada, especially for English for academic purposes (EAP) programs. EAP pathway programs both within postsecondary institutions as well as at private pathway institutions, have been feeling the effects of decreased numbers of international students at Canada’s universities and colleges as a result of the uncertainty surrounding Canada’s international student program.

Fewer international students who use English as an additional language coming to study at Canada’s colleges and universities means fewer people choosing to do an EAP pathway program to fulfil language admission requirements. Add to that the challenges faced by language centres and schools as new processes have been developed in response to these policies, such as small allocations of PALs to language schools in some provinces, and challenges in the transition from EAP program to fulltime studies, and it’s seen a hard time for language institutions. Across the country, low enrollment numbers, layoffs and even centre closures abound.

But the Canadian language education sector is nothing if not resilient and innovative! The IRCC changes and ensuing uncertainty primarily affects people coming to pursue a college or university program or other longer-term study that necessitates a study permit (and of course those hoping to apply for a post-graduation work permit once they graduate).

There hasn’t been as much impact on short programs under 6 months in duration that don’t necessitate a study permit. I expect focus on everything other than pathway EAP—short-term courses, camps and study tours, online/blended options, etc.—to continue, along with a focus on building partnerships with and attracting students from countries who can enter Canada visa-free.

Parallel to this, the continued shift away from teaching toward testing, especially for study or immigration purposes, will continue.

Twenty-twenty-four saw restrictive policy changes regarding international students carried out in all the the “Big 4” countries (Canada, USA, UK and Australia, traditionally the top destinations for English language education) . There are several fast-growing alternative English language learning destinations. However, I’m seeing and hearing of more learners considering studying English at home to their desired level of proficiency and then doing a standardized test, rather than studying abroad.

There are lots of factors at play here. The above-mentioned policy changes, global inflation and cost-of-living challenges, and decreased interest in some areas in international study post-pandemic certainly have an effect.

But major assessment organizations have been making efforts to expand the reach of their exams, adding at-home and online options, bring prices down, and also increase the numbers of bodies that accept them, from governments to post-secondary institutions.

I see these factors continuing to cause some students to choose to stay at home and prepare to take IELTS until they have a high enough score for direct admission, for example, rather than come to a Big Four country for a pathway English program prior to beginning their degree. And with a constantly changing policy landscape where students might have to change their study plans last-minute, a standardized test score is more transportable between institutions and even countries than a pathway program diploma tied to one place.